Vision 2020 - A Paradoxical View
Everyone in the IT & IT Enabled industry is happy. What with the demand for professionals – especially relatively experienced in the segment, on the rise.
Professionals are in great demand and there are innumerable manpower consultants chasing the professional, on a daily basis.
Why do the so-called professionals hop jobs ever so frequently? The answer is simple – make hay while sun shines. For every jump, a professional makes, an increase of 20% in perks is the de-facto standard now … sorry I do not have any authentic report on this, but I can state this with conviction. So where will this lead us …Indians in the year 2020?
A simple analysis of the current situation and a fearful analysis on the future trends will show where we are heading to in the Year 2020.
Let’s assume that a professional gets an average of 20% hike for every jump. Let’s also assume that an IT organization has an average 20% attrition rate per annum. Add to this a moderate 10% increase in the cost of the employees and another 10% on other expenses, for the organization. This results in a significant increase in the operating costs for the Organization. Today if we are x-times lesser in manpower-cost, which is being attributed for the continuous in-flow of low-end jobs, then we will certainly be x-power-n times expensive by Year 2020. Now, I suppose the point is clear – we will be highly incompetent, cost-wise, by Year 2020 or may be sooner! And may be, we may not have jobs at all in the IT industry by Year 2020.
What will be the life of kids of the current IT whiz kids be like, in Year 2020, if the above situation were to become a reality?
I walked to school and bi-cycled to college when I was studying. Commuted by State Bus, to reach work place, the first couple of years. But the current day IT-Metro-Fathers send their kids to schools by [chauffer driven] cars. The kids get to high school on sporty & expensive bikes. They have enough pocket money to spend on girl/boy friends, mobile phones and other extras. More fortunate ones have an additional car to visit a multiplex with their girl/boy friends.
The innocent kid, brought up on this kind of lifestyle, will certainly look for a dream job in IT industry alone and not elsewhere. Certainly the kid will not like to take up a uniformed-factory-job, assuming we are left with some manufacturing factories in Year 2020, because the kid cannot even imagine such a job…he has seen only his father/mother in IT industry, as inspiration.
So it’s a great responsibility on all the IT-Metro-Fathers to bring up their kids with enough all round exposure, ensuring their kids do not end up frustrated in their teen years. It’s a responsibility on the Captains of the IT industry to ensure that we standardize the salary-structure and remain cost-competitive forever. This will not only be a service to the industry but also to the lives of future-generation. Imagine India minus IT sector! Imagine the loss of revenue/business, and loss of jobs, for the now thriving support sectors, viz., Manpower Agencies, Security Agencies, Housekeeping Agencies, FMCG sector, and Call Taxi Operators. Without a booming IT industry, imagine the plight of IT re-sellers, Office Equipment Manufacturers/Dealers, Cellular Operators, High End bike Manufacturers, Midsize Car Manufacturers, Star Hotels, Packaged Food Industry, Pleasure Tour Operators, Real Estate Industry, Banking Sector, et al. Note that women folk are best employed ONLY in IT sector. Last but not the least, the receipts will fall even to the NGOs operating in the Social Sector and finally the Income Tax Department.
Lets all hope NOT to see a civil war in our lifetime, because of a very sharp [economic] class differentiation that we are building now. Let’s all HOPE to see a highly effective, competitive, reliable and everlasting IT industry along with Biotechnology, Nanotechnology, and Manufacturing and Service Industries by Year 2020.
Ganesh Babu N R
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Comments
The analysis though true in certain aspects fails to address and provide commendation to the real achievements that India has shown.
My Blog : http://India-IT-Pulse.blogspot.com
Vijay
Dear friends
I am completly against reservations based on caste system. This is a
politics only to get support of majority population of obc category
people, otherwise only few thousand jobs cannot help crores of obc
population as a society. It is a attempt to individually victimise
general catagory people and individually rewarding reserved catagory
people. this system is completly faulty as how a ward of chief
engineer, minister, officer, landlord of reserved catagory be
preffered over a ward of poor, unemployed general category person.
the argument given by supporters of reservation is that:
1) these people come from far flung undeveloped area, where there is
no electricity, no proper education and are from poor family. If this
is the argument then these should be the factors to decide
reservations insted of caste.
OBC people were never victimised or exploited by general category
people insted OBC people exploited SC/St in past more that geneCal
category people. In most of the states CHIEF MINISTERS are of OBC
category and OBC are very rich and developed.
This fact is very clear from the survey done by hindustan lever ltd.
that 54% of its emplyees are from OBC,SC/ST category.
hence this attempt of politician is only to make happy majority
population of OBC and devide the society as nobody who is poor and is
of general category can see his ward with 90% marks and is denied
addmission and a son of minister from OBC is given addmission who got
60% marks. This is a sort of LOOTING. As looting by a poor man in the
house of rich can not be justified then how looting of jobs(in india
job is the most priority item in the life aS IT IS LINKED WITH
LIVELIHOOD) and LIVELY HOOD OF OUR CHILDERN BE JUSTIFIED.
If this is continued, very soon people from general category will
demand seperate HOME LAND LIKE muslims asked in 1947. that can only be
the solution is justice is denied to general category people.
AMIT
Ganesh, I think you are frustrated with the younger generation lifestyle, Well let me give you a small jist. Hope you are some south Indian Towns/village/metros where people who spend money may be doctors/ engg/ IT people but If you move up in our Indian Map you will reach Haryana which is not a Professional state. People who live there are farmers. They have highest number of Mercedes Benz (20 Lac car and Above) than those who have the same in delhi. There people and younglings try to do farming not to IT industry.
So can i say that their fathers must educate them to know outside world. Tt is the kind of work and the way you earn money defines your lifestyle.
Anyway I gave my point
Albert
http://www.bepenfriends.com/
In economics every thing will come back to equilibrium in the long run . So it is wrong to assume that some trends will persist such time periods like or 20 or even ten years. In developing counties that may happpen because of they are different but not any where else
Don Lapre is a Superstar
webmaster@j-ams.org
http://www.j-ams.org
Whre can I find out more information about this topic?
http://www.katesoriginals.com
katesoriginals.com
Hi Ganesh - That’s a fearful analysis indeed, but only of the IT-generation. I mean, you’ve virtually discounted today’s lower classes in India who will still strive to become farmers and factory workers, albeit ones that operate machines (hopefully!).